WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll: Hodes Pulls Ahead Of Bass In NH District 2, District 1 Tightens

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D., UNH Survey Center, November 2, 2006

Durham, NH - Democrat challenger Paul Hodes has pulled ahead of Republican Charlie Bass in the race for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. In the 1st District, incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley is facing a stronger than expected challenge from political newcomer Carol Shea-Porter.

These findings are based on the 2006 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.

Six hundred eighty-two (682) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 29 and November 1, 2006. The potential sampling error for the statewide survey is ±3.8%. Three-hundred fifty-two likely 1st District voters were surveyed (margin of sampling error of +/- 5.2%) and 330 likely 2nd District voters were interviewed (margin of sampling error +/- 5.4%).

NH First District

The race for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District pits two term Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley against newcomer Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. In a reflection of the anti-Republican mood across the country, Bradley is holding only a narrow lead over Shea-Porter. In the latest WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll, 47% of likely 1st District voters say they will vote for Bradley, 42% favor Shea-Porter, 1% favor some other candidate, and 10%
remain undecided. Historically, an incumbent with less than 50% of the vote in polls just before an election is likely to lose.

Shea-Porter had been trailing throughout the campaign but has pulled within range of winning this historically Republican seat because of highly motivated Democrat voters and dispirited Republicans. She is leading among those voters who say they are extremely interested in the election by a 62% to 38% margin and is tied among voters who say they will definitely vote.

Shea-Porter also does well with voters with post graduate educations and voters living in the Lakes region of the 1st District.

Bradley has some good news from this poll in that he leads among swing voters, those voters who do not consistently vote for Democrats or Republicans, by 54% to 16%. His challenge is to get more Republicans and swing voters to the polls on election day to counter the current Democratic advantage in turnout. Bradley runs strongest among Republicans, men, and voters in Massachusetts border towns.

NH Second District

Charlie Bass has been on Democrat radar screens since he won this district in western New Hampshire in 1994. The 2nd District has become more Democratic since that time, but Bass has easily won reelection 5 times. This year, he is in a rematch with his 2004 challenger, Concord attorney Paul Hodes. While Bass easily defeated Hodes in 2004 (58% to 38%), he is in a much tougher battle in 2006. Reflecting an anti-Republican national mood, voters in the 2nd District are taking their anger against President Bush and the war in Iraq out on Bass. Currently, 45% of likely voters in the 2nd District say they will vote for Hodes, only 37% say they will vote for Bass 2% prefer Libertarian Ken Blevins, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 14% are undecided.

Democrats in the 2nd District are highly motivated and this is a tremendous advantage for Hodes. Among voters who say they are extremely interested in the election, Hodes leads 68% to 23% . He also leads by 50% to 37% among voters who say they will definitely vote.

Bass' hope for pulling out a victory in this election is to somehow motivate Republicans in the 2nd District to get out and
vote. While running negative ads my cause swing voters to stay home, it is questionable whether the ads he and the Republican Party are running will drive Republicans to the polls.

Iraq and Bush

The war in Iraq and attitudes toward President Bush are the driving issues in both districts. Two-thirds of likely voters statewide say that the war in Iraq is very important to their vote for Congress, 27% say it is somewhat important, and 6% say it is not very important or not important at all. Similarly, 62% of voters say that supporting or opposing President Bush is
very important, 19% say Bush is somewhat important, and 18% think Bush is not very important or not important at all in their vote.

Among 1st District voters who say that Iraq is very important to their vote, 50% say they will vote for Shea-Porter and only 38% say they will vote for Bradley. In the 2nd District, 52% of those who say Iraq is very important say they will vote for Hodes and 32% say they will vote for Bass.

A similar pattern holds for voters who say Bush is very important to their vote. Shea-Porter leads among 1st District voters who say Bush is very important to their vote by 54% to 37% and Hodes leads among 2nd District voters who say that Bush is very important to their vote by a 56% to 31% margin.

NH Governor

Incumbent John Lynch continues to maintain a wide lead over Republican Jim Coburn in the race for New Hampshire Governor. The latest tracking poll has Lynch at 71% , Coburn has 19%, 3% prefer some other candidate and 8% are undecided.

NH Senate

Democrats continue to lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire Senate. In the latest track, 49% of likely voters say
they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State Senate district, 33% plan to vote for the Republican, and 18% are undecided.

NH House

Democrats also lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire House. In the latest track, 46% of likely voters say they plan
to vote for the Democrat in their State House district, 34% plan to vote for the Republican, and 19% are undecided.

read the survey