Step back...I'm going to make a prediction.

I think one of the hallmarks of the 2008 Presidential Primary in New Hampshire could be the free distribution of video iPods to volunteers and prospective voters. You might even see some campaigns omit spending on television ads altogether, and instead focus their communication resources on narrow-casting (not broadcasting) via the Internet to their most important audiences.

Let me explain why I think this could happen, and why two events in the last 24 hours confirm my views.

One of the largest budget items for any federal candidate, especially Presidential candidates, is their media budget. Based on the campaign budget's I've seen, media can cost anywhere from a third to two-thirds of a campaign's overall expenses, depending on the cost of media markets itself and obviously the dynamics of the race itself. Point is, campaigns spend hundreds of thousands (and sometimes millions of dollars) on ads -- not field staff or organizers. Not very efficient.

I think all of that might dramatically change in New Hampshire (and maybe Iowa) in 2008.

First, some background: even the most casual user of the Internet knows we are quickly moving past email and web pages. Blogs, podcasts, RSS, and a host of other technologies and services are becoming a part of our daily lives. I could get geeky here, but the point is, the Internet is quickly becoming the only platform that really matters. There is a host of thinking and arguing and geeking about this (which tends to be known as Web 2.0; go to this site for some details...), but the point is, it's happening and it's big.

It's also clear that traditional media is under tremendous stress. I live in Lyme, NH, and people here increasingly use a listserve (instead of the local paper) to post classifieds. It's our version of Craigslist (craigslist.com), and efficiency of this approach compared to print is mind-boggling.

It's also clear that significant numbers of people will have devices (let's call them iPods) which will capture media content (songs, video, audio, movies, whatever) and allow them to see it anywhere and anytime. By last count, Apple had sold 42 million iPods, which I believe is approximately 70% of the mp3 marketshare). Even without an MBA, a reasonable person to supposed that it's entirely possible to imagine that by January 2008 there will be 100 million owners or iPods or similar devices in the US.

It's also clear that television over the Internet is possible and going to have a strong future. Dartmouth students and faculty and staff get it (albeit via cable, but expect that to change). The quality is incredible good and the impact tremendous.

So, those are the trends. What were the recent news events?

First, Apple announced yesterday a very cheap iPod -- $69. Yes, it's a iPod Shuffle that does not have video, but if trends continue, it's reasonable to imagine a video capable iPod in two years that will be price at less than $100.

Second, Russ Feingold released his first video podcast thru his Progressive Patriot's Fund. And why did he do it? Because it allows him "to speak directly to you."

Fast forward to January 2007. You're the first staffer for a Presidential candidate. The primary is 12 months away. You want to identify and communicate to key volunteers and undecided voters. You reach into your bag, hand out an iPod that automatically connects that person to updates on the campaign and candidates, and off you go.

Crazy? Insane? Duh? I'd love to get reactions and pushback to this, so fire away!

P.S. To glimpse the future, go to www.politicstv.com